Just a brief note about Egypt. I'm hopeful for change, if the Egyptian government collapses and is replaced with a democratic regime (a big if, there's a long path between Mubarak stepping down and eventual elections, even if someone supposedly democratic steps in we won't know they've really democratized until there's been a transfer of power between democratically elected coalitions, the white knight not infrequently morphs into another tyrant) there's reasons to be optimistic about political reform both in Egypt and in other countries, these things frequently happen in waves. Also, an article in the NY Times mentions that the Muslim Brotherhood says it will support El Baradei which lessens the chance of an Iranian revolution style transition. These are positive developments but it's too early to make predictions. In the end, the first deciding factor is whether or not the army shoots when ordered to do so. As far as we know, it hasn't been ordered to do so yet, and until a new government is in place we don't know if it will receive these orders or how it will react. Until then, this is all up in the air.
And after that, it's still up in the air till power changes hand between democratically elected regimes.