Tuesday, March 15, 2011
I probably wrote that last post too late. If this New York Times story is correct, this is probably the final point where intervention can make a difference. There's only a few hours left for governments to wake up and realize that the costs of the situation are already sunk and there's little to nothing to lose by intervention but real gains to be had, though gains that have been shrinking by the hour since the Arab League came out in favor of intervention. This is probably too short a time frame for diplomacy so I'm predicting that those costs will start showing up in a few years. I'm expecting an uptick in terrorists of Libyan origin, probably not on the scale of Afghanistan but enough that we will rue our dithering in due time.